Wednesday, July 31, 2013

NASCAR Sprint Cup Chase picture coming into focus as series heads to Pocono

Unless something unfathomable happens soon -- beginning this weekend at Pocono Raceway, in fact -- the pool of drivers hoping to qualify for NASCAR's 12-driver Chase for the Championship will begin getting shallower by the week. With six races remaining before the field is set at Richmond on Sept. 7, eight drivers are going for five spots.
The Chase field includes the top 10 in points, plus the two winningest drivers between 11th and 20th in points after Richmond. If several non-top 10 drivers are tied in wins, the highest-ranked drivers get the wild card spots. With one win each, 11th-ranked Tony Stewart and 12th-ranked Martin Truex Jr. currently hold those spots.
As much as we can know anything after 20 of 26 regular-season races, we know this:
Four-race winner and runaway points leader Jimmie Johnson will make the Chase. Winless but second-ranked Clint Bowyer will make it, too. As will one-race winner Carl Edwards, two-race winner Kevin Harvick, winless Dale Earnhardt Jr., four-race winner Matt Kenseth and two-race winner Kyle Busch, seventh-ranked going into Sunday afternoon's GoBowling.com 400 at the 2.5-mile, three-sided track in Pennsylvania.
Almost without question, those seven will be somewhere among the top 10 after the Richmond race. Busch is 45 points ahead of eighth-ranked Greg Biffle, 46 ahead of ninth-ranked Kasey Kahne and 51 ahead of 10th-place Jeff Gordon. Plus, Busch has those two wins as a safety net if he stumbles unimaginably, falls from the top 10 and needs a wild-card spot.
Biffle and Kahne have their own safety net, each with a “fallback” win. But if all else fails and they slip from the top 10, one win probably won't be enough for a wild-card spot. (Two wins would be golden). Gordon is winless and only one point inside the top 10, creating pressure similar to last year, when he squeezed into the Chase at Richmond by three points over Kyle Busch.
But neither Biffle nor Kahne -- and especially Gordon -- should feel very comfortable about his position. Defending series champion Brad Keselowski is winless and 13th in points, but only six outside the top 10. Former champion Kurt Busch is winless and 14th in points, but only 15 outside the top 10. Nothing suggests that 15th-ranked Jamie McMurray will reach the top 10 or win enough down the stretch to get a wild-card spot. Likewise, we've seen nothing from Aric Almirola, Joey Logano or Paul Menard that suggests they'll reach the top 10 or earn a wild-card spot.
Stewart, Truex and recent Brickyard 400 winner Ryan Newman (16th in points) are the only winners between 11th and 20th in points. Newman is the longest of long shots to reach the top 10 by Richmond, but another win might ensure a wild-card spot. (You'll find plenty of his fans hoping he gets there ahead of team-owner Stewart, who recently said Newman won't return to Stewart-Haas Racing next year).
As recent as Loudon 16 days ago, Jeff Burton insisted his Richard Childress Racing team could still make the Chase. But his 43rd-place at Indy last weekend threw him from 17th in points to 20th and from 25 to 60 points outside the top 10. So he's out, as is 25th-ranked Denny Hamlin. After missing four early-season races due to a back injury, the Joe Gibbs Racing star is not only 171 points from the top 10 (utterly impossible in six races) but 111 points from reaching 20th in points to even become wild-card eligible.
Many of the Chase hopefuls have enjoyed success at Pocono. Gordon leads all drivers with six wins, including last August. Hamlin has four wins, Bobby Labonte and Johnson three (including a butt-kicking in June), Kurt Busch, Earnhardt, Edwards and Stewart two, and Newman, Logano, Kahne, Keselowski and Biffle one each.
Keselowski and J.J. Yeley are the only Cup drivers planning to make the Pocono-to-Iowa shuttle on Saturday afternoon for Saturday night's U.S. Cellular Nationwide Series 250 at Iowa Speedway. No Cup drivers are entered in Saturday afternoon's Camping World Truck Series 125 at Pocono.
The full Pocono weekend on-track schedule:
Friday: 9-11:20, Camping World Truck Series practice; 11:30 a.m.-1 p.m. Sprint Cup practice; 3:10 p.m., Cup qualifying; 5:15 p.m., start of ARCA 125 (50 laps, 125 miles)
Saturday: 9-9:50 a.m., Cup practice; 10, Truck Series qualifying; 11:30 a.m.-12:20 p.m., final Cup practice; 1 p.m., start of Camping World Truck Series 125 (50 laps, 125 miles)
Sunday: 1 p.m., start of Sprint Cup GoBowling.com 400 (160 laps, 400 miles

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